Revenue Projections

Forecast future revenue based on historical trends using multiple projection methods and confidence scenarios.

Revenue Projections use your historical sales data to forecast future revenue. By analysing past trends, seasonal patterns, and growth rates, Eleo generates forecasts that help you plan budgets, manage cash flow, and set realistic revenue targets.

Projection methods

Eleo supports several projection methods, each suited to different business patterns:

• Simple Average — Calculates the mean daily revenue over the past N days and projects that forward. Best for businesses with stable, predictable revenue.
• Weighted Average — Similar to Simple Average but gives more weight to recent days. This responds faster to recent changes in revenue while still smoothing out day-to-day noise.
• Linear Trend — Fits a straight line to your historical data and extrapolates the growth or decline forward. Useful when your revenue is consistently increasing or decreasing.
• Seasonal — Accounts for day-of-week patterns and seasonal variations. This method recognises that weekends may differ from weekdays, or that certain months are busier than others. It produces the most accurate forecasts for businesses with strong cyclical patterns.

Forecast scenarios

Each projection generates three scenarios to give you a range of possible outcomes:

• Optimistic — The upper bound of expected revenue, representing a scenario where conditions are favourable.
• Expected — The most likely revenue based on historical trends. This is the central projection and the default view.
• Conservative — The lower bound, representing a scenario where conditions are less favourable.

Confidence levels are shown alongside each scenario, indicating how wide the uncertainty band is. A narrow band suggests high confidence; a wide band indicates more variability in your historical data.

Configuring the horizon

The forecast horizon controls how many days ahead the projection extends. A shorter horizon (7–14 days) provides higher accuracy, while a longer horizon (30–90 days) is useful for strategic planning but carries more uncertainty. You can adjust the horizon from the projection settings panel.

Reading the projection

The projection chart shows:

• Historical line — Your actual daily revenue over the lookback period (shown as a solid line).
• Forecast line — The projected daily revenue (shown as a dashed line extending into the future).
• Confidence bands — Shaded areas around the forecast line showing the optimistic-to-conservative range. The wider the band, the more uncertain the projection.

Hover over any day on the chart to see the projected revenue for that date along with the confidence interval.